GOP Rundown

James Malone

In the race to decide who will be President Obama’s 2012 opponent and possible future occupant of the White House, the GOP contest to nominate that candidate is finally starting to show signs of life.

At first, marked by its notoriety – the once “possible” Donald Trump candidacy in early spring – the GOP has already divided into two separate ideological camps on who will win the nomination.

The basic two camps are divided between the Tea Party Movement candidates and the more establishment, moderate candidates.

The top-tier candidates in the Tea Party side of the field consist of Texas Governor Rick Perry, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

The lesser-known candidates, or less likely to go anywhere but the concession podium, are former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, businessman Herman Cain, and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, and not to forget Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate, who is a contender in the top-tier category, but a candidate who has yet to declare her 2012 bid or show any interest in running.

On the establishment part of the field, there is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China (under President Obama) Jon Huntsman Jr. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty was in this category before he dropped out last August due to poor polling.

Governor Perry is the highest polling candidate in the Tea Party section, but due to the number of candidates courting the support of the Tea Party, if the minor candidates stay around too long and drag away voters in Iowa and South Carolina, he will fail to consolidate power and allow Mitt Romney to itch the nomination.

Iowa is a strong state dominated by the Tea Party, and this is out to be a great state for Perry. With this being the birth state of Michele Bachmann, and with Congressman Ron Paul spending much of his time and resources in this state, there is a possibility that Perry may not be able to establish power amongst the Tea Party here. And failing to do this here may serve to emasculate Perry, as this allows the South and the Midwest delegates to be divided amongst the Tea Party candidates.

On top of that, there is the Palin factor. If she declares her candidacy, she will splinter the vote and give Romney more cover. However, if she endorses Perry, she could give him considerable strength, or if she endorses Bachmann or another Tea Party candidate, she still proves to be a splinter vote.

Romney, being the establishment candidate, is skipping the Iowa Caucus and placing his bet on New Hampshire. This is a state designed for him to win. He is the former governor of the neighboring state Massachusetts, giving him serious advantage with the locals.

However, Jon Huntsman Jr., the only other establishment candidate in the race, has stacked it big here too. While the likelihood of a former Obama employee winning today’s Tea Party-dominated Republican Party is slight, his role is to act as a force to minimize Romney’s share of the vote in New Hampshire.

Recent New Hampshire polls showed Huntsman Jr. getting 10 percent of the vote, though how much of a role he will play is anybody’s guess.

And with both candidates being Mormons, Huntsman Jr. may divide up the Mormon vote in the Midwest, which will also hurt Romney’s ability to consolidate power.

“This is likely a race between Perry and Romney,” Alex Avila, MCC political science professor, said. “If there are too many Tea Party candidates in the race, and Romney is able to consolidate power amongst the establishment, Romney is likely to win the nomination. However, if Perry consolidates power amongst the Tea Party, he will likely be the nominee.”

“I think I support Perry, but I just want someone who can beat Obama,” Cenric Nigbur, student, said. “I just want someone who beat Obama and undo all the awful things he has done.”

 

  • Mesa Legend Staff

    These are archived stories from Mesa Legend editions before Fall 2018. See article for corresponding author.

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